The safety of antivirals and neutralising monoclonal antibodies used in prehospital treatment of Covid-19 (preprint)

Objective This proof-of-principle pharmacovigilance study used Electronic Health Record (EHR) data to examine the safety of sotrovimab, paxlovid and molnupiravir in prehospital treatment of Covid-19. Method With NHS England approval, we conducted an observational cohort study using OpenSAFELY-TPP, a secure software-platform which executes analyses across EHRs for 24 million people in England. High-risk individuals with Covid-19 eligible for prehospital treatment were included. Adverse events (AEs) were categorised into events in the drugs Summary of Product Characteristics (SmPC), drug-reactions and immune-mediated. Cox models compared risk across treatments. A pre-pandemic record analysis was performed for comparative purposes. Results Between 2021-2023, 37,449 patients received sotrovimab, paxlovid or molnupiravir whilst 109,647 patients made up an eligible-but-untreated population. The 29-day rates of AEs were low: SmPC 0.34 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 0.32-0.36); drug-reactions 0.01 (95% CI 0.01-0.02) and immune-mediated 0.03 (95% CI 0.03-0.04), and similar or lower than the pre-pandemic period. Compared with the eligible but untreated population, sotrovimab and paxlovid associated with a risk of SmPC AE [adjHR 1.36 (95% CI 1.15-1.62) and 1.28 (95% CI 1.05-1.55), respectively], whilst sotrovimab associated with a risk of drug-reactions [adjHR 2.95 (95% CI 1.56-5.55)] and immune-mediated events [adjHR 3.22 (95% CI 1.86-5.57)]. Conclusion Sotrovimab, paxlovid and molnupiravir demonstrate acceptable safety profiles. Although the risk of AEs was greatest with sotrovimab, event rates were lower than comparative pre-pandemic period.

Ursodeoxycholic acid and severe COVID-19 outcomes in people with liver disease: a cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform (preprint)

Biological evidence suggests ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) - a common treatment of cholestatic liver disease - may prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes. With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a population-based cohort study using primary care records, linked to death registration data and hospital records through the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform. We estimated the hazard of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death between 1 March 2020 and 31 December 2022, comparing UDCA treatment to no UDCA treatment in a population with indication. Of 11,320 eligible individuals, 642 were hospitalised or died with COVID-19 during follow-up, 402 (63%) events among UDCA users. After confounder adjustment, UDCA was associated with a 21% (95% CI 7%-33%) relative reduction in the hazard of COVID-19 hospitalisation or death, consistent with an absolute risk reduction of 1.3% (95% CI 1.0%-1.6%). Our findings support calls for clinical trials investigating UDCA as a preventative measure for severe COVID-19 outcomes.

One year health outcomes associated with systemic corticosteroids for COVID-19: a longitudinal cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundIn patients with COVID-19 requiring supplemental oxygen, dexamethasone reduces acute severity and improves survival, but longer-term effects are unknown. We hypothesised that systemic corticosteroid administration during acute COVID-19 would be associated with improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL) one year after discharge. MethodsAdults admitted to hospital between February 2020 and March 2021 for COVID-19 and meeting current guideline recommendations for dexamethasone treatment were included using two prospective UK cohort studies. HRQoL, assessed by EQ-5D-5L utility index, pre-hospital and one year after discharge were compared between those receiving corticosteroids or not after propensity weighting for treatment. Secondary outcomes included patient reported recovery, physical and mental health status, and measures of organ impairment. Sensitivity analyses were undertaken to account for survival and selection bias. FindingsIn 1,888 participants included in the primary analysis, 1,149 received corticosteroids. There was no between-group difference in EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year (mean difference 0.004, 95% CI: -0.026 to 0.034, p = 0.77). A similar reduction in EQ-5D-5L was seen at one year between corticosteroid exposed and non-exposed groups (mean (SD) change -0.12 (0.22) vs -0.11 (0.22), p = 0.32). Overall, there were no differences in secondary outcome measures. After sensitivity analyses modelled using a larger cohort of 109,318 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19, EQ-5D-5L utility index at one year remained similar between the two groups. InterpretationSystemic corticosteroids for acute COVID-19 have no impact on the large reduction in HRQoL one year after hospital discharge. Treatments to address this are urgently needed. Take home messageSystemic corticosteroids given for acute COVID-19 do not affect health-related quality of life or other patient reported outcomes, physical and mental health outcomes, and organ function one year after hospital discharge

Dichotomy of neutralizing antibody, B cell and T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and protection in healthy adults (preprint)

Heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 vaccine responses is not understood. Here, we identify four patterns of live-virus neutralizing antibody responses: individuals with hybrid immunity (with confirmed prior infection); rare individuals with low responses (paucity of S1-binding antibodies); and surprisingly, two further groups with distinct serological repertoires. One group - broad responders - neutralize a range of SARS-CoV-2 variants, whereas the other - narrow responders - neutralize fewer, less divergent variants. This heterogeneity does not correlate with Ancestral S1-binding antibody, rather the quality of the serological response. Furthermore, IgDlowCD27-CD137+ B cells and CCR6+ CD4+ T cells are enriched in broad responders before dose 3. Notably, broad responders have significantly longer infection-free time after their third dose. Understanding the control and persistence of these serological profiles could allow personalized approaches to enhance serological breadth after vaccination.

Comparative effectiveness of Paxlovid versus sotrovimab and molnupiravir for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised patients: observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform (preprint)

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of Paxlovid vs. sotrovimab and molnupiravir in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 adult patients. Design: With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a real-world cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform. Setting: Patient-level electronic health record data were obtained from 24 million people registered with a general practice in England that uses TPP software. The primary care data were securely linked with data on COVID-19 infection and therapeutics, hospital admission, and death within the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, covering a period where both Paxlovid and sotrovimab were first-line treatment options in community settings. Participants: Non-hospitalised adult COVID-19 patients at high risk of severe outcomes treated with Paxlovid, sotrovimab or molnupiravir between February 11, 2022 and October 1, 2022. Interventions: Paxlovid, sotrovimab or molnupiravir administered in the community by COVID-19 Medicine Delivery Units. Main outcome measure: COVID-19 related hospitalisation or COVID-19 related death within 28 days after treatment initiation. Results: A total of 7683 eligible patients treated with Paxlovid (n=4836) and sotrovimab (n=2847) were included in the main analysis. The mean age was 54.3 (SD=14.9) years; 64% were female, 93% White and 93% had three or more COVID-19 vaccinations. Within 28 days after treatment initiation, 52 (0.68%) COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths were observed (33 (0.68%) treated with Paxlovid and 19 (0.67%) with sotrovimab). Cox proportional hazards model stratified by region showed that after adjusting for demographics, high-risk cohort categories, vaccination status, calendar time, body mass index and other comorbidities, treatment with Paxlovid was associated with a similar risk of outcome event as treatment with sotrovimab (HR=1.14, 95% CI: 0.62 to 2.08; P=0.673). Results from propensity score weighted Cox model also showed comparable risks in these two treatment groups (HR=0.88, 95% CI: 0.45 to 1.71; P=0.700). An exploratory analysis comparing Paxlovid users with 802 molnupiravir users (11 (1.37%) COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths) showed some evidence in favour of Paxlovid but with variation in the effect estimates between models (HR ranging from 0.26 to 0.61). Conclusion: In routine care of non-hospitalised high-risk adult patients with COVID-19 in England, no substantial difference in the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes was observed between those who received Paxlovid and sotrovimab between February and October 2022, when different subvariants of Omicron were dominant.

Ethnic differences in the indirect impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on clinical monitoring and hospitalisations for non-COVID conditions in England: An observational cohort study using OpenSAFELY (preprint)

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted healthcare and may have impacted ethnic inequalities in healthcare. We aimed to describe the impact of pandemic-related disruption on ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospital admissions for non-COVID conditions in England. Methods We conducted a cohort study using OpenSAFELY (2018-2022). We grouped ethnicity (exposure), into five categories: White, South Asian, Black, Other, Mixed. We used interrupted time-series regression to estimate ethnic differences in clinical monitoring frequency (e.g., blood pressure measurements) before and after 23rd March 2020. We used multivariable Cox regression to quantify ethnic differences in hospitalisations related to: diabetes, cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease, and mental health before and after 23rd March 2020. Findings Of 14,930,356 adults in 2020 with known ethnicity (92% of sample): 86.6% were White, 7.3% Asian, 2.6% Black, 1.4% Mixed ethnicity, and 2.2% Other ethnicities. Clinical monitoring did not return to pre-pandemic levels for any ethnic group. Ethnic differences were apparent pre-pandemic, except for diabetes monitoring, and remained unchanged, except for blood pressure monitoring in those with mental health conditions where differences narrowed during the pandemic. For those of Black ethnicity, there were seven additional admissions for diabetic ketoacidosis per month during the pandemic, and relative ethnic differences narrowed during the pandemic compared to White. There was increased admissions for heart failure during the pandemic for all ethnic groups, though highest in White ethnicity. Relatively, ethnic differences narrowed for heart failure admission in those of Asian and Black ethnicity compared to White. For other outcomes the pandemic had minimal impact on ethnic differences. Interpretation Our study suggests ethnic differences in clinical monitoring and hospitalisations remained largely unchanged during the pandemic for most conditions. Key exceptions were hospitalisations for diabetic ketoacidosis and heart failure, which warrant further investigation to understand the causes. Funding LSHTM COVID-19 Response Grant (DONAT15912).

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab and molnupiravir for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised patients on kidney replacement therapy: observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-UKRR linked platform and SRR database (preprint)

Background Patients on kidney replacement therapy (KRT; dialysis and kidney transplantation) are at the highest risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19. Due to limited inclusion of patients on KRT in clinical trials, information is limited on the effectiveness of sotrovimab (a neutralising monoclonal antibody). We sought to address this by comparing its effectiveness against molnupiravir (an antiviral) in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised adults with symptomatic COVID-19. Methods With the approval of NHS England we used routine clinical data from 24 million patients in England linked to the UK Renal Registry (UKRR) to identify patients on KRT, and data on antiviral treatments, COVID-19 test results, hospitalisation events and death from the OpenSAFELY-TPP data resource. Cox proportional hazards models (stratified for region) were used to estimate hazard ratios of sotrovimab vs. molnupiravir with regards to COVID-19 related hospitalisation or deaths in the subsequent 28 days (as the primary outcome). Further analyses were conducted using propensity score weighting (adjusted for region) and to investigate robustness of results with regards to different time periods, missing data, and adjustment variables. We also conducted a complementary analysis using data from patients in the Scottish Renal Registry (SRR) treated with sotrovimab or molnupiravir, following similar analytical approaches. Results Among the 2367 renal patients treated with sotrovimab (n=1852) or molnupiravir (n=515) between December 16, 2021 and August 1, 2022 in England, 38 cases (1.6%) of COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths were observed during the 28 days of follow-up after treatment initiation, with 21 (1.1%) in the sotrovimab group and 17 (3.3%) in the molnupiravir group. In multiple-adjusted analysis sotrovimab was associated with substantially lower risk of 28-day COVID-19 related hospitalisation/death than treatment with molnupiravir (hazard ratio, HR=0.35, 95% CI: 0.17 to 0.71; P=0.004), with results remaining robust in sensitivity analyses. In the SRR cohort, there were 19 cases (1.9%) of COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths during the 28 days of follow-up after treatment initiation of sotrovimab (n=723) or molnupiravir (n=270). In multiple-adjusted analysis, sotrovimab showed a trend toward lower risk of 28-day COVID-19 related hospitalisation/death than treatment with molnupiravir (HR=0.40, 95% CI: 0.13 to 1.21; P=0.106). In both datasets, sotrovimab had no evidence of association with other hospitalisation/death compared with molnupiravir (HRs ranging from 0.73-1.20; P>0.05). Conclusions In routine care of non-hospitalised patients with COVID-19 on kidney replacement therapy, those who received sotrovimab had substantially lower risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes than those receiving molnupiravir.

Comparative effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules involving AZD1222 and BNT162b2 in people with kidney disease: a linked OpenSAFELY and UK Renal Registry cohort study (preprint)

Background: Kidney disease is a key risk factor for COVID-19-related mortality and suboptimal vaccine response. Optimising vaccination strategies is essential to reduce the disease burden in this vulnerable population. Methods: With the approval of NHS England, we performed a retrospective cohort study to estimate the comparative effectiveness of schedules involving AZD1222 (AZ; ChAdOx1-S) and BNT162b2 (BNT) among people with kidney disease. Using linked primary care and UK Renal Registry records in the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, we identified adults with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease, dialysis recipients, and kidney transplant recipients. We used Cox proportional hazards models to compare COVID-19-related outcomes and non-COVID-19 death after two-dose (AZ-AZ vs BNT-BNT) and three-dose (AZ-AZ-BNT vs BNT-BNT-BNT) schedules. Findings: After two doses, incidence during the Delta wave was higher in AZ-AZ (n=257,580) than BNT-BNT recipients (n=169,205; adjusted hazard ratios [95% CIs] 1.43 [1.37-1.50], 1.59 [1.43-1.77], 1.44 [1.12-1.85], and 1.09 [1.02-1.17] for SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalisation, COVID-19-related death, and non-COVID-19 death, respectively). Findings were consistent across disease subgroups, including dialysis and transplant recipients. After three doses, there was little evidence of differences between AZ-AZ-BNT (n=220,330) and BNT-BNT-BNT recipients (n=157,065) for any outcome during a period of Omicron dominance. Interpretation: Among individuals with moderate-to-severe kidney disease, two doses of BNT conferred stronger protection than AZ against SARS-CoV-2 infection and severe disease. A subsequent BNT dose levelled the playing field, emphasising the value of heterologous RNA doses in vulnerable populations.

Contribution of genetics and lifestyle to the risk of major cardiovascular and thromboembolic complications following COVID-19 (preprint)

Clinical determinants for cardiovascular and thromboembolic (CVE) complications of COVID-19 are well-understood, but the roles of genetics and lifestyle remain unknown. We performed a prospective cohort study using UK Biobank, including 25,335 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 1, 2020, and September 3, 2021. Outcomes were hospital-diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke (ISS), and venous thromboembolism (VTE) within 90 days post-infection. Heritable risk was represented by validated polygenic risk scores (PRSs). Lifestyle was defined by a composite of nine variables. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards models. In the COVID-19 acute phase, PRSs linearly predicted a higher risk of AF (aHR 1.52 per standard deviation increase, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.67), CAD (1.59, 1.40 to 1.81), and VTE (1.30, 1.11 to 1.53), but not ISS (0.92, 0.64 to 1.33). A healthy lifestyle was associated with a substantially lower risk of post-COVID-19 AF (0.70, 0.53 to 0.92), CAD (0.64, 0.44 to 0.91), and ISS (0.28, 0.12 to0.64), but not VTE (0.82, 0.48 to 1.39), compared with an unhealthy lifestyle. No evidence for interactions between genetics and lifestyle was found. Our results demonstrated that population genetics and lifestyle considerably influence cardiovascular complications following COVID-19, with implications for future personalised thromboprophylaxis and healthy lifestyle campaigns to offset the elevated cardiovascular disease burden imposed by the ongoing pandemic.

Contribution of genetics and lifestyle to the risk of major cardiovascular and thromboembolic complications following COVID-19 (preprint)

Clinical determinants for cardiovascular and thromboembolic (CVE) complications of COVID-19 are well-understood, but the roles of genetics and lifestyle remain unknown. We performed a prospective cohort study using UK Biobank, including 25,335 participants with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection between March 1, 2020, and September 3, 2021. Outcomes were hospital-diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF), coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke (ISS), and venous thromboembolism (VTE) within 90 days post-infection. Heritable risk was represented by validated polygenic risk scores (PRSs). Lifestyle was defined by a composite of nine variables. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and confidence intervals (CI) using Cox proportional hazards models. In the COVID-19 acute phase, PRSs linearly predicted a higher risk of AF (aHR 1.52 per standard deviation increase, 95% CI 1.39 to 1.67), CAD (1.59, 1.40 to 1.81), and VTE (1.30, 1.11 to 1.53), but not ISS (0.92, 0.64 to 1.33). A healthy lifestyle was associated with a substantially lower risk of post-COVID-19 AF (0.70, 0.53 to 0.92), CAD (0.64, 0.44 to 0.91), and ISS (0.28, 0.12 to0.64), but not VTE (0.82, 0.48 to 1.39), compared with an unhealthy lifestyle. No evidence for interactions between genetics and lifestyle was found. Our results demonstrated that population genetics and lifestyle considerably influence cardiovascular complications following COVID-19, with implications for future personalised thromboprophylaxis and healthy lifestyle campaigns to offset the elevated cardiovascular disease burden imposed by the ongoing pandemic.

Changes in COVID-19-related mortality across key demographic and clinical subgroups: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform on 18 million adults in England (preprint)

Objectives To quantify in absolute and relative terms how population-level COVID-19 death rates have changed in demographic and clinical subgroups. Design Retrospective cohort study on behalf of NHS England. Setting Linked primary care and death registry data from the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, covering the first three pandemic waves in England (wave 1: March 23 to May 30, 2020; wave 2: September 7, 2020 to April 24, 2021; and wave 3, delta: May 28 to December 14, 2021). Participants In total, 18.7, 18.8, and 18.7 million adults were included for waves 1, 2, and 3 respectively. Main outcome measures COVID-19-related mortality based on linked death registry records. Results The crude rate of COVID-19-related death per 1,000 person-years decreased from 4.48 in wave 1 (95%CI 4.41;4.55), to 2.70 in wave 2 (95%CI 2.67;2.73), to 0.64 in wave 3 (95%CI 0.63;0.66). The death rate decreased by 90% between waves 1 and 3 in patients aged 80+, but by only 20% in patients aged 18-39. This higher proportional reduction in death rates was also seen for other groups, such as neurological disease, learning disability and severe mental illness. Conversely, death rates in transplant recipients stayed constant across successive waves at 10 per 1,000 person-years. There was also only a small decrease in death rates between waves in people with kidney disease, haematological malignancies or conditions associated with immunosuppression. Consequently, the relative hazard of COVID-19-related death decreased over time for some variables (e.g. age), remained similar for some (e.g. sex, ethnicity), and increased for others (e.g. transplant). Conclusions COVID-19 death rates decreased over the first three pandemic waves. An especially large decrease was seen in older age groups and people with neurological disease, learning disability or severe mental illness. Some demographic inequalities in death rates persisted over time. Groups more likely to experience impaired vaccine effectiveness did not see the same benefit in COVID-19 mortality reduction.

Factors associated with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in people with kidney disease: an OpenSAFELY cohort study (preprint)

BackgroundKidney disease is a significant risk factor for COVID-19-related mortality. Achieving high COVID-19 vaccine coverage among people with kidney disease is therefore a public health priority. MethodsWith the approval of NHS England, we performed a retrospective cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform. Individual-level routine clinical data from 24 million people in England were included. A cohort of individuals with stage 3-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) or receiving renal replacement therapy (RRT) at the start of the COVID-19 vaccine roll-out was identified based on evidence of reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate or inclusion in the UK Renal Registry. Individual-level factors associated with vaccine uptake were explored via Cox proportional hazards models. Results948,845 people with stage 3-5 CKD or receiving RRT were included. Cumulative vaccine coverage as of 11th May 2022 was 97.5%, 97.0%, and 93.5% for doses 1, 2, and 3, respectively, and 61.1% among individuals with one or more indications for receipt of a fourth dose. Delayed 3-dose vaccine uptake was associated with non-White ethnicity, social deprivation, and severe mental illness - associations that were consistent across CKD stages and in RRT recipients. Similar associations were observed for 4-dose uptake, which was also delayed among care home residents. ConclusionAlthough high primary and booster dose coverage has been achieved among people with kidney disease in England, key disparities in vaccine uptake remain across demographic groups. Identifying how to address these disparities remains a priority to reduce the risk of severe disease in this vulnerable patient group.

Effectiveness of BNT162b2 booster doses in England: an observational study in OpenSAFELY-TPP (preprint)

Background The UK COVID-19 vaccination programme delivered its first "booster" doses in September 2021, initially in groups at high risk of severe disease then across the adult population. The BNT162b2 Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was used initially, with Moderna mRNA-1273 subsequently also used. Methods We used the OpenSAFELY-TPP database, covering 40% of English primary care practices and linked to national coronavirus surveillance, hospital episodes, and death registry data, to estimate the effectiveness of boosting with BNT162b2 compared with no boosting in eligible adults who had received two primary course vaccine doses between 16 September and 16 December 2021 when the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 was dominant. Follow up was for up to 10 weeks. Each booster recipient was matched with an unboosted control on factors relating to booster priority status and prior immunisation. Additional factors were adjusted for in Cox models estimating hazard ratios (HRs). Outcomes were positive SARS-CoV-2 test, COVID-19 hospitalisation, COVID-19 death and non-COVID-9 death. Booster vaccine effectiveness was defined as 1-HR. Results Among 4,352,417 BNT162b2 booster recipients matched with unboosted controls, estimated effectiveness of a booster dose compared with two doses only was 50.7% (95% CI 50.1-51.3) for positive SARS-CoV-2 test, 80.1% (78.3-81.8) for COVID-19 hospitalisation, 88.5% (85.0-91.1) for COVID-19 death, and 80.3% (79.0-81.5) for non-COVID-19 death. Estimated effectiveness was similar among those who had received a BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1-S two-dose primary vaccination course, but effectiveness against severe COVID-19 was slightly lower in those classified as clinically extremely vulnerable (76.3% (73.1-79.1) for COVID-19 hospitalisation, and 85.1% (79.6-89.1) for COVID-19 death). Estimated effectiveness against each outcome was lower in those aged 18-65 years than in those aged 65 and over. Conclusion Our findings are consistent with strong protection of BNT162b2 boosting against positive SARS-CoV-2 test, COVID-19 hospitalisation, and COVID-19 death.

Comparative effectiveness of sotrovimab and molnupiravir for prevention of severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised patients: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform (preprint)

Objective: To compare the effectiveness of sotrovimab (a neutralising monoclonal antibody) vs. molnupiravir (an antiviral) in preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes in non-hospitalised high-risk COVID-19 adult patients. Design: With the approval of NHS England, we conducted a real-world cohort study using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform. Setting: Patient-level electronic health record data were obtained from 24 million people registered with a general practice in England that uses TPP software. The primary care data were securely linked with data on COVID-19 infection and therapeutics, hospital admission and death within the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform, covering a period where both medications were frequently prescribed in community settings. Participants: Non-hospitalised adult COVID-19 patients at high-risk of severe outcomes treated with sotrovimab or molnupiravir between December 16, 2021 and February 10, 2022. Interventions: Sotrovimab or molnupiravir administered in the community by COVID-19 Medicine Delivery Units. Main outcome measure: COVID-19 related hospitalisation or COVID-19 related death within 28 days after treatment initiation. Results: Patients treated with sotrovimab (n=3288) and molnupiravir (n=2663) were similar with respect to most baseline characteristics. The mean age of all 5951 patients was 52 (SD=16) years; 59% were female, 89% White and 87% had three or more COVID-19 vaccinations. Within 28 days after treatment initiation, 84 (1.4%) COVID-19 related hospitalisations/deaths were observed (31 treated with sotrovimab and 53 with molnupiravir). Cox proportional hazards models stratified by area showed that after adjusting for demographics, high-risk cohort categories, vaccination status, calendar time, body mass index and other comorbidities, treatment with sotrovimab was associated with a substantially lower risk than treatment with molnupiravir (hazard ratio, HR=0.53, 95% CI: 0.32-0.88; P=0.014). Consistent results were obtained from propensity score weighted Cox models (HR=0.51, 95% CI: 0.31-0.83; P=0.007) and when restricted to fully vaccinated people (HR=0.52, 95% CI: 0.30-0.90; P=0.020). No substantial effect modifications by other characteristics were detected (all P values for interaction>0.10). Conclusion: In routine care of non-hospitalised high-risk adult patients with COVID-19 in England, those who received sotrovimab were at lower risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes than those receiving molnupiravir.

Clinical characteristics with inflammation profiling of Long-COVID and association with one-year recovery following hospitalisation in the UK: a prospective observational study (preprint)

Background There are currently no effective pharmacological or non-pharmacological interventions for Long-COVID. To identify potential therapeutic targets, we focussed on previously described four recovery clusters five months after hospital discharge, their underlying inflammatory profiles and relationship with clinical outcomes at one year. Methods PHOSP-COVID is a prospective longitudinal cohort study, recruiting adults hospitalised with COVID-19 across the UK. Recovery was assessed using patient reported outcomes measures (PROMs), physical performance, and organ function at five-months and one-year after hospital discharge. Hierarchical logistic regression modelling was performed for patient-perceived recovery at one-year. Cluster analysis was performed using clustering large applications (CLARA) k-medoids approach using clinical outcomes at five-months. Inflammatory protein profiling from plasma at the five-month visit was performed. Findings 2320 participants have been assessed at five months after discharge and 807 participants have completed both five-month and one-year visits. Of these, 35.6% were female, mean age 58.7 (SD 12.5) years, and 27.8% received invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The proportion of patients reporting full recovery was unchanged between five months 501/165 (25.6%) and one year 232/804 (28.9%). Factors associated with being less likely to report full recovery at one year were: female sex OR 0.68 (95% CI 0.46-0.99), obesity OR 0.50 (95%CI 0.34-0.74) and IMV OR 0.42 (95%CI 0.23-0.76). Cluster analysis (n=1636) corroborated the previously reported four clusters: very severe, severe, moderate/cognitive, mild relating to the severity of physical, mental health and cognitive impairments at five months in a larger sample. There was elevation of inflammatory mediators of tissue damage and repair in both the very severe and the moderate/cognitive clusters compared to the mild cluster including interleukin-6 which was elevated in both comparisons. Overall, there was a substantial deficit in median (IQR) EQ5D-5L utility index from pre-COVID (retrospective assessment) 0.88 (0.74-1.00), five months 0.74 (0.60-0.88) to one year: 0.74 (0.59-0.88), with minimal improvements across all outcome measures at one-year after discharge in the whole cohort and within each of the four clusters. Interpretation The sequelae of a hospital admission with COVID-19 remain substantial one year after discharge across a range of health domains with the minority in our cohort feeling fully recovered. Patient perceived health-related quality of life remains reduced at one year compared to pre-hospital admission. Systematic inflammation and obesity are potential treatable traits that warrant further investigation in clinical trials.

Associations of Health, Lifestyle and Psycho-Social Factors With Sleep Quality During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Focus on UK Older Adults Deemed Clinically Extremely Vulnerable (preprint)

Background: Sleep quality is crucial for health and wellbeing in all ages and sleep abnormalities may contribute to multimorbidity in older adults. The impact of pandemic-related disruptions to sleep quality in older adults, particularly those deemed “clinically extremely vulnerable” to COVID-19-related complications (COVID-19CEV) remains unknown.Methods: In this cross-sectional study, conducted during the first UK lockdown (April- June 2020), we surveyed 5558 adults aged 50 years and over (of whom 523 met criteria for COVID-19CEV) with assessments of sleep quality, health/medical, lifestyle, psychosocial and sociodemographic factors. We identified associations between these factors and sleep quality and explored interactions of COVID-19CEV status with factors significantly associated with sleep quality to identify potential moderating variables.Findings: 37% of participants reported poor sleep quality which was associated with younger age, female sex and multimorbidity. Significant associations with poor sleep included, among health/medical factors: COVID-19CEV status, higher BMI, arthritis, pulmonary disease, and mental health disorders; .and the following lifestyle and psychosocial factors: living alone, higher alcohol consumption, an unhealthy diet and higher depressive and anxiety symptoms. r Moderators of the COVID-19CEV status - sleep quality relationship included marital status, loneliness, anxiety and diet. Within this subgroup, less anxious and less lonely males, as well as females with healthier diets, reported better sleep quality. Interpretation: Sleep quality in older adults was compromised during the sudden unprecedented nation-wide lockdown due to distinct health/medical, lifestyle and psychosocial factors. Male and female older adults with COVID-19CEV status may benefit from targeted mental health and dietary interventions, respectively. Results inform tailored interventions and policy for older adults deemed COVID-19CEV. Funding Information: This study was sponsored by Imperial College London and partly funded by the ICHT BRC.Declaration of Interests: Dr. Middleton reports clinical trial grants from Janssen R&D, Novartis and Takeda outside the submitted work. All authors declare no competing interests related to this study.Ethics Approval Statement: Data collected as in this study are anonymized and kept strictlyconfidential in accordance with the UK General Data Protection Regulations (2016). The CCRR study was ethically approved by the Imperial College London Joint Research Compliance Office (20IC5942) and by the Health Research Authority (16/EM/0213).

Trust in government and its associations with health behaviour and prosocial behaviour during the COVID-19 pandemic (preprint)

Previous studies suggested that public trust in government is vital for implementations of social policies that rely on public's behavioural responses. This study examined associations of trust in government regarding COVID-19 control with recommended health behaviours and prosocial behaviours. Data from an international survey with representative samples (N=23,733) of 23 countries were analysed. Specification curve analysis showed that higher trust in government was significantly associated with higher adoption of health and prosocial behaviours in all reasonable specifications of multilevel linear models (median standardised β=0.173 and 0.244, P<0.001). We further used structural equation modelling to explore potential determinants of trust in government regarding pandemic control. Governments perceived as well organised, disseminating clear messages and knowledge on COVID-19, and perceived fairness were positively associated with trust in government (standardised β=0.358, 0.230, 0.055, and 0.250, P<0.01). These results highlighted the importance of trust in government in the control of COVID-19.